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Variability Affects Inventory

Variability is the reason that inventory rapidly rises with increasing utilization. The amount of variability shapes the the curve that defines this relationship. The amount of variability also limits capacity. With high variability, a factory or production line "chokes up" well below theoretical capacity.

The figure below shows how this works. It was developed by simulating a simple production line with perfectly balanced (on average) stations. However, each station's work time may change from cycle to cycle, e.g., variability. The results apply, qualitatively, to most work processes.

The yellow curve shows how inventory varies when all stations are balanced and work times have no variation. At low utilization, workpieces enter the line at well below the maximum production rate and quickly move from station to station. With ten stations and 10% utilization only one workpiece is in the system. It exits before the next is released.

Above 10% (in this case) several workpieces are in the system but each is at a workstation. Above 100% capacity, all stations are full and inventory builds at the line's first station. This is how most production systems are presumed to operate, but they rarely do so because of variability.

With variable work times, shown by the other curves, stations are unsynchronized and inventory collects between them. This inventory buildup begins to accelerate well below 100% utilization. Eventually, the system cannot process work as fast as the inventory builds and output remains constant, even with rising input.

In this particular model, the system choked at about 75% capacity when the coefficient of variation reached 1.0. This explains why many production systems never seem to achieve their potential.

What It Means

The behavior of these systems has important strategic implications for marketing and finance in addition to manufacturing. Click below for more discussion.

Related Topics

Variability Effects
Strategic Implications
Lean & Variability
Capacity & Inventory

 

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